How Should Value Be Measured Monetarily?

Slapping dollar values on a particular player's performance is generally done by multiplying his WAR for the season by about $5M, the current market value teams pay for a single win above replacement.


Yet, an overwhelming amount of Major Leaguers are not operating on contracts obtained through Free Agency. Using the aforementioned methodology certainly has its uses: Without getting into salary inflation, and his decline into the latter years of a long-term deal, Prince Fielder can be expected to be a 5-win player for 2012 and therefore worth $25M.


Just as WAR can't be used in all situations (Even statheads will admit that MVP races shouldn't be entirely defined by WAR, neither should Hall of Fame balloting), and of course, WAR is far from perfect (defensive metrics need a ton of work in general, and are very poor in small samples), neither should this way to calculate a dollar value to a player.


My point is that, the Major Leagues spent $2,786,161,291 on 2011 Opening Day salaries, and used that money to generate a total of 1163.6 WAR (Fangraphs version), or $2,394,432.19 per single win above replacement. I believe this number should be referenced when describing a player's value to a team in dollars, while Free Agent contracts should be evaluated based on the market figure of $5M.


Jose Bautista was therefore worth $19,873,787.18 in 2011, in his last year of arbitration eligibility. This is roughly half of Fangraphs' calculated value of $37.4M, yet represents the true value Bautista would have had to any team.


If you think evaluating players based on this principle is a fair point (or otherwise), please leave a comment!

Breaking News: Bautista, Blue Jays, Close to 5-Year, $65MM Extension

Enrique Rojas (ESPN Deportes baseball newsbreaker extraordinaire) has reported that Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays are closing in on a 5-year, $65 million extension that will keep the MLB home run champ in Toronto through 2015.


It's more than worth it.


As I posted almost a month ago, even if Bautista undergoes a Brady Anderson-like decline, he'd still be worth $13MM a season.


People know Jose Bautista broke out big-time in 2010, but the full-extent of his gargantuan season sometimes gets lost: he was a 6.9 WAR player. That's worth $27.8MM according to Fangraphs. It wasn't just a historic season as far as breakouts go, it was a historic batting season period and Bautista's .357 Isolated Power can attest to that. 


A 167 wRC+ and .422 wOBA... incredible statistics for any player in era.


Even if Bautista continues his world-beating, home run-smashing ways for just three season and then falls off the face of the Earth, this contract will be more than justified. 

Weigh-In Wednesday: Podsednik, Versteeg, Bautista, Armstrong

Every Wednesday from today onward, BTTN will publish 'Weigh-In Wednesday', which will feature links to other interesting sports articles from across the blogosphere.

- Getting Blanked and Bluebird Banter both break down the Jays recent signing of  Scott Podsednik and wonder if he's even an upgrade over Corey Patterson.

- I was happy after the recent Kris Versteeg to Philadelphia trade that the Maple Leafs made recently, but Bitter Leaf Fan argues that it heavily favoured the Flyers.

- Paul Swydan proves on Fangraphs that it's impossible to find comparables to Jose Bautista, which adds to the intrigue of his looming arbitration case/extension announcement.

- The Slapshot wonders if Colby Amstrong will be the next Maple Leaf traded and provides fantastic insight while doing so.

A Closer Look at the Risks Involved With a Jose Bautista Extension

Yes, Jose Bautista deserves an extension. Now.

I was originally going to write up an article about what I would like to see AA accomplish over the remainder of the offseason, and that will still come, but after analyzing Jose Bautista's extension or arbitration/2011 FA dilemma, I decided that this is undoubtedly worth its own post.

Alex Anthopolous stated pretty clearly in his latest Fan 590 interview that he'd be perfectly happy to go to arbitration with Jose Bautista. But I believe that extension time is now, and with the newfound cash following the Vernon Wells trade (although I don't think at all that it needs to be spent at once), the opportunity has presented itself for the Blue Jays to follow through on extending the MLB home run leader. 

I propose a 4 year, $45MM contract.

Brady Anderson has easily been the most referenced player in connection with Jose Bautista. Yet Brady wasn't exactly terrible following his 50 homer season, regardless of public opinion and the lack of any eye-popping stats in following seasons. Sure, he never hit for plus-plus power after 1996, but just look at the OPS's of the four seasons after his big year: .862, .776, .881, .796. Not too bad, eh? And certainly worth $10 million in today's crazy baseball economy. 

Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth between 4 and 5 million dollars (we'll use 4.5), and combining Anderson's WAR from the four seasons following 1996 (total of 11.5), he's worth $51.75MM over that four year stretch. Still think giving Jose Bautista a shiny new contract is too risky? Anderson is seen as the sterling example of what terrible thing could happen to Jose Bautista in 2011, a frightening historical precedent that can't be ignored. But clearly, even if Bautista does fall off an Anderson-like cliff after signing my proposed 4/45 deal, it would still be worth it.

On the opposite side of the spectrum of surprising 50 homer hitters is Cecil Fielder, who after toiling away in Toronto, got his chance with Detroit in 1990 to be an everyday hitter, and boy did he claim it, with 51 home runs and a .277/.377/.592 line.

Yes, he's nowhere near the same type of player as Bautista and the miracle season was under very different circumstances, but the main point remains the same: it was surprising, and people wondered if it was all a mirage. It wasn't, and although never again did Fielder OPS .900 in a season or even reach 45 bombs, he did average 33.6 over the next five seasons. These five seasons were worth 14 WAR according to Fangraphs, and therefore a value of $63MM. 

Now, this brings up a new argument: home runs aren't all what they're made out to be, as Anderson almost reaches Fielder's value plateau despite never again hitting 25 and a big shift in the court of public opinion.

But my point still stands: Even in the worst-case scenario that fans are predicting for Bautista in 2011, he's still worth a big contract, as he has a long way to fall. Please, pay Jose Bautista.