Reaction To ESPN's Franchise Player Draft; BTTN's Own Franchise Player Draft

Longoria's contract, bat, and sparkling defense
make him a player any team would covet

Yesterday, ESPN had 30 of its baseball employees take part in a one-round and as frustrating as the criteria were (Keith Law, selecting Longoria, clearly believes contracts should factor into the drafting, while Joe Mauer-love Jim Caple clearly does not), some of the selections were much more boggling.


I mean, it is ridiculous to think that Neftali Feliz, Wilson Ramos, and Buster Posey were actually drafted. Feliz could very well turn into a plus-starter, and Ramos could be a 4 WAR catcher, but none of them come close to Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, or even Josh Hamilton


It is unthinkable that Jay Bruce was nowhere to be seen. David Shoenfield was quoted as saying 

"Bruce is good, but let's not get carried because he just had the best month of his career. He's been great for one month ... he may be great for many more months, but he hasn't proven that yet." But Jay Bruce was Baseball America's top prospect (yes, #1 overall) in 2008, and has had some solid major league seasons since. The second he shows elite production, Jay Bruce should be vaulted to the top of franchise player rankings the world over.


Among other clear gaffes (decisions that are practically undefendable) are Amy K. Nelson's selection of Tim Lincecum at 5th overall, and Justin Upton falling to 29th. Lincecum's arm is, of course, going to fall off one of these years, perhaps after his changeup becomes ineffective due to his rapidly declining fastball velocity. Whine about Upton all you want, but the kid's a stud, and is well on his way to a 5 WAR season in 2011. I don't care about how much hype a prospect gets, you really can't be disappointed in a 4.8 WAR season at age 21, and a 5 WAR season at age 23. 


Thus, we at BTTN elected to carry out our own draft of any player in baseball, contracts (and any other real-life variables) considered. Team identities will follow the order of the 4th-50th rounds of the 2011 MLB draft, which would also be the first few rounds if compensatory selections were not awarded.


1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Evan Longoria, 3B
Longoria has easily the most favourable team contract in baseball, if not all pro sports, in addition to already being an elite performer at third base with room for a bit more growth.
2. Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez, SP
Why not? King Felix is a great fit for their ballpark, has a favourable contract, and is already one of the best pitchers in the game. A natural and easy selection.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Colorado's rival Arizona ends up selecting the franchise shortstop. Tulo has a lengthy contract that, let's face it, could turn into an albatross if Tulowitzki injuries keep piling up, but he's the best all-around shortstop in baseball at the moment for good reason. 
4. Baltimore Orioles: Jason Heyward, OF
Playing in the AL East, Baltimore needs a bona-fide superstar and boy, is Heyward that type of player. Displaying all five tools as well as the most-important trait that isn't one, patience, Heyward should provide the framework to the Orioles team for years to come.
5. Kansas City Royals: Justin Verlander, SP  
Verlander is your classic workhorse. He may not have a history of sub-3.00 ERA seasons, but he's the real deal. 
6. Washington Nationals: Jay Bruce, SP
Jay Bruce is ready to have a 40-homer season right now. Former #1 prospect in the game by Baseball America, he's ready to take that next step and become MLB's next superstar.
7. Cleveland Indians: Joey Votto, 1B
Nothing team-specific to point out here, Votto is the type of bat that can drive an entire team, and is a plus defender at first.
8. Chicago Cubs: Bryce Harper, OF
The Cubs will need to put together some serious talent to break their 100+ year streak, and Harper is the way to go.
9. Houston Astros: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second base is becoming one of those position where elite talent is hard to find. The Astros, like the Nationals, have the cash to pay Cano his favourable contract that runs through 2013.
10. Milwaukee Brewers: Mike Stanton, OF
Mike Stanton has probably the most raw power of any player in the Majors currently. With a bit more seasoning, he's likely to be good for 40+ home runs annually while not killing you in average or on-base.
11. New York Mets: David Price, SP
David Price is a franchise pitcher and being mechanically sound is fit to warrant this early selection, avoiding the notion that due to health concerns, position players are eternally more valuable than pitchers.
12. Florida Marlins: Mike Trout, OF
Mike Trout is a perfect fit for the Marlins. A great player development team, the Marlins won't be fazed by Trout's relative inexperience.
13. Los Angeles Dodgers: Hanley Ramirez, SS
Hanley may be having a sub-par 2011 (a pitiful 72 wRC+) but it's hard to overlook his fantastic past success.
14. Los Angels Angels: Justin Upton, OF
The Angels have trouble developing power in their prospects as Upton naturally falls to them.
15. Oakland Athletics: Jon Lester, SP
Lester is a great fit for the A's ideals, ballpark, and cost considerations. 


Stay tuned for the second half of the first round, to be released on BTTN in a few days!

Brett Lawrie Hysterics In Full Force

As you probably already know, Brett Lawrie has been rumoured to be earning the call this Friday (via signs from both team employees and armchair conspiracy theorists alike) for the Blue Jays first game against the Baltimore Orioles.

The only doubt at this point is whether or not his recent hand-mashing against Tucson will push back his Major League debut a few days. Incidentally, in the game, fellow 51s took the blow to Lawrie as seriously as most diehard fans such as myself, as Lawrie's top prosect counterpart Anthony Rizzo was blasted by a heater during his very next plate appearance and left the game as well. 

Let's hope this chain of events will lead Major League Baseball to assign San Diego as the Blue Jays interleague 'rival', instead of the perennial powerhouse Phillies, starting in 2012.

Nonethless, what could Brett Lawrie do for Toronto this year? Will he have a Ryan Braun-like impact or take a few years to adjust to Major League breaking balls? Rookie of the Year or Bust of the 2008 Draft (interestingly enough, only Kyle Skipworth and Ethan Martin are among players drafted ahead of Lawrie's 16 that can be assigned as likely busts).

There's certainly no stead-fast way to tell; This instance of seeing how minor leaguers adjust to the majors can't definitively be predicted statistically. With his fast-improving approach and smart baserunning skills, I think he has the tools to make adjustments as necessary. But we'll just have to wait and see.

Fast Track To Contention - Blue Jays Best-Case Scenario Through 2012

Brett Lawrie represents a huge part of the Blue Jays future,
but what could that future potentially hold?

Now that the first month-plus of the 2011 Major League Baseball season is in the books, Blue Jays fans have grown to realize that, while this year's team could certainly win 85 games again, they probably won't be competing for a playoff spot. Blue Jays management is likely more focused on player development this season than contention in the standings.

We all know the Blue Jays are in for a serious roster re-working in the not-so-distant future, but what exactly does that entail, and what will happen in everything goes as planned? In this post, I will outline the ideal scenario for the Blue Jays in 2011 and beyond.

Blue Jays Notes: Jays Playing Great Despite .500 Record, Positive Signs Emerge

JP Arencibia has had a lot to smile about in 2011

Complain all you want about Aaron Hill and Adam Lind, but hey, it is a small sample size, and well, the rest of the team has been playing so well that we should focus on the positives.


I've always though of J.P. Arencibia as more of short-term filler until D'Arnaud and Perez reach the majors, but he's really impressed in every opportunity he's gotten this season and has a shot at Rookie of the Year if he gets enough work. And he should certainly get more work, I understand that Jose Molina is some sort of gamecalling savant but really, if 2011 truly is about 2012 and beyond, Arencibia should be playing five days a week at least.


The pitching staff has also vastly impressed me, as the Jays currently are 7th in the majors in ERA and at 3.07 are easily better than one would expect the end-of-season #1 team to finish with. Top to bottom, the rotation has been great, so who will vacate a position when Brandon Morrow comes back?


To me, it all depends on everyone's next start. If Brett Cecil gets rocked tonight against Boston (game currently scoreless), he may be called down until he velocity eclipses 90. Meanwhile, if Jo-Jo Reyes pitches poorly in his next start, he will almost certainly be waived/traded.


While the bullpen has pitched well statistically, they haven't done well in clutch situations, which will almost certainly even out over a larger sample.

Could Kyle Drabek Win AL Rookie of the Year?

Kyle Drabek has a lot of things going for him in the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year race.

Firstly, he obviously has the talent to put up a sub-3.80 ERA with a respectable amount of strikeouts. Secondly, he's going to pitch the whole season, the Blue Jays will not be limiting his innings unless he really pushes the envelope and hits 210 in mid-September.

To date, his detractors have said that he's not 'ace'-caliber and while he could very well end up as a dependable workhorse over the next decade, he's never going to strike out guys at elite level or put up a sub-3.00. 

Yet, after adding a lethal cutter (small sample size, but according to Fangraphs, the cutter has earned 2.7 wCT in his two starts, making it the second-best cutter in baseball so far), I think he's in for a serious re-evaluation. 

MLB Season Opens: 2011 BTTN Predictions For Everything Important

We love Francisco Liriano for 2011, enough
to finish 2nd in AL Cy Young voting

Yes, the weather may not show it in Toronto and some northern US cities, but baseball has started, and all 30 teams will have kicked off their season by late-night tomorrow.


The Jays of course are playing the Twins in a Fri-Sat-Sun series (7:07 pm Friday) that starts their season, while 12 teams are in action today.


Without further ado, here are BTTN's 2011 MLB Predictions:


American League


AL East
1. Red Sox 96-66
2. Yankees 88-74*
3. Rays 86-76
4. Blue Jays 85-77
5. Orioles 79-83


Comments: This year's AL East is one of the strongest single-season divisions in recent history. I have faith in projecting four teams to finish over-.500 and perhaps five if Baltimore can continue to play well under Buck Showalter. I think the Yankees pitching staff is mildly underrated, AJ Burnett should bounce-back with at least a 4.40 ERA, and Ivan Nova should be good enough to be at least a league-average starter.


The Red Sox are clearly baseball's best team, with a deep staff and great lineup.

2011 Blue Jays Preview: Will Aaron Hill and Adam Lind Bounce-Back?

REUTERS/Mike Cassese

To a degree.


Hill and Lind both had seasons in 2010 that were as strange as they were putrid. Aaron Hill managed a historic .196 BABIP, while Adam Lind countered with the most futile left-handed split in recent memory (.117/.159/.182, .341 OPS).


Some think we can just write off those seasons, as the statistics don't make any sense, and expect Lind and Hill to fully return to 2009 numbers. Hill's BB and K numbers were normal and Adam Lind's peripherals were close to his career norms after all, right?

2011 Blue Jays Preview: Will Brandon Morrow Ascend to 'Ace' Status in 2011?

This article is the first in a series of individual player outlooks for the 2011 MLB season.

After losing Vernon Wells and Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays fans aplenty began writing off Toronto's 2011 season. Add in the fact that Jose Bautista is due for some sort of decline... and suddenly it's difficult to imagine the Blue Jays winning more than 83 or 84 games.


Yet I believe the team will better their 2010 record. Not only will Adam Lind and Aaron Hill surely improve to closer to their career norms, (I mean, they were both among the unluckiest players in the Majors last year) but the rotation is likely to overcome the loss of Shaun Marcum as Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil look to keep getting better, and of course, Brandon Morrow could have the ace-like season everyone expects of him. Brandon Morrow looks to be the unheralded key to the Blue Jays 2011 campaign.

Blue Jays Sign Francisco Tejada Out of Dominican; My Take on Upcoming CBA Talking Points

Today, the Blue Jays announced they have signed 17-year old oufielder Francisco Tejada for $150K out of the Dominican Republic. Nobody knows anything about him, other than that he supposedly possesses a high ceiling.

Which is great. And it reminds me that these international signings may not be possible just a year from now.

There are a lot of pressing issues that surround talks about the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, and none more than the idea of a worldwide draft (and please refrain from referring to it as an 'international' draft, we already have one of those).

On the surface, it looks like a dandy plan. All of the inhumane practices currently done by MLB teams to heavily recruit Latin America, and the chaotic structure would be abolished. All teams would have a fair shake at the top latin prospects, not just the teams with enough money to build enormous academies and pay their toolsy students mounds of dough.

Grapefruit League Action Begins! What To Look for In Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training

Sure, it has been a week or so since most of the Blue Jays players first arrived for workouts in Florida, but today is the first day of their Grapefruit League schedule.

Can Jesse Litsch re-find the success he enjoyed in 2008?

The Jays are busy taking on the Detroit Tigers in Dunedin (started at 1:05 pm), and there are certainly tons of storylines to look out for. I believe most of the games are only available on the Fan590, so break out and tune your radios (games not available streamed online, but there are various ways to get around that).


Here are five things to look out for in Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training:

BTTN 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide

If you have the #1 pick you're taking Albert Pujols.
But in an auction draft spending $40 on a guy that plays
an obscenely deep position isn't good use of your cash. 

Yes baseball fans, it's that time of year again. Spring Training workouts have already begun and later this month both Cactus and Grapefruit League action will commence. Similarly, baseball fanatics spend Spring Training (some traditionalists even draft a week after Opening Day) studying up for the fantasy season.

To guide you through your fantasy draft, we at BTTN have assembled our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy Guide. On Wednesday, our Top 200 player rankings were released, which can be found here.

Type of Draft

Does your league just draft players out of a pre-determined order, or is it an auction? I'd recommend the auction-format, it's way more fun and frankly, more just. Every owner has a chance at every player. It's basic supply & demand fundamentals. That said, most of these strategies/things to look out apply for any type of draft.

Breaking News: Bautista, Blue Jays, Close to 5-Year, $65MM Extension

Enrique Rojas (ESPN Deportes baseball newsbreaker extraordinaire) has reported that Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays are closing in on a 5-year, $65 million extension that will keep the MLB home run champ in Toronto through 2015.


It's more than worth it.


As I posted almost a month ago, even if Bautista undergoes a Brady Anderson-like decline, he'd still be worth $13MM a season.


People know Jose Bautista broke out big-time in 2010, but the full-extent of his gargantuan season sometimes gets lost: he was a 6.9 WAR player. That's worth $27.8MM according to Fangraphs. It wasn't just a historic season as far as breakouts go, it was a historic batting season period and Bautista's .357 Isolated Power can attest to that. 


A 167 wRC+ and .422 wOBA... incredible statistics for any player in era.


Even if Bautista continues his world-beating, home run-smashing ways for just three season and then falls off the face of the Earth, this contract will be more than justified. 

2011 BTTN Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings – Top 200

These rankings are based on a scoring system of either 4x4, 5x5, or an H2H scoring system that uses roto categories. On Friday (Feb. 18, '11), BTTN will release our fantasy strategy and draft guide, which in tandem with these rankings make up the 2011 BTTN Fantasy Baseball Preview.

Players in italics are our super-sleepers for 2011 (meaning they have big breakout potential), while underlined names are players we feel have a big enough bust factor that we discourage you from drafting them.

1.     Albert Pujols, 1B (St. Louis Cardinals)

Yes, First base is incredibly deep, but it’s hard to argue for anyone else at No. 1. Expect him to have a huge year in an attempt to land his proposed $300MM contract.

2.     Hanley Ramirez, SS (Florida Marlins)

Had a down year in 2010, but is still the best shortstop in the game and position scarcity at the position warrants him this ranking.

3.     Miguel Cabrera, 1B (Detroit Tigers)

Four category superstar, there’s no reason to expect him not to continue raking in 2011.

4.     Evan Longoria, 3B (Tampa Bay Rays)

Longoria’s regression in 2010 has been largely overlooked, but I sense a rebound… who wouldn’t when that kind of talent is on the table?

5.     Troy Tulowitzki, SS (Colorado Rockies)

Yes, there’s the injury-risk, but if Tulowitzki plays 150 games, watch out for a .310/30/100 season, with 100 runs and 20 stolen base potential. Scary.

Should the Toronto Blue Jays Go After Carlos Delgado or Michael Young?

Carlos Delgado and Michael Young are both former Dunedin Blue Jays. Should Toronto ensure a reunion in 2011?

Yes and No. 

No offense to Vernon Wells (or anyone from the 90's championship teams)... but Carlos Delgado is the best position player in Toronto Blue Jays history by a long shot. And maybe the best player as well.

Delgado's 2000 season is drop-dead off the charts, and may be the best non-steroids-enhanced campaign ever by a batter (or at least among players not named in the Mitchell Report, I don't want to be called naive or anything). That summer he hit .344/470/.664 while launching 41 homers, walking 19 times more than he struck out. He played all 162 games and would do so again in 2001.

There's no question that his skills have dropped off the table significantly since then, but he can still put up a .500 SLG and I believe would be a great bench player who occasionally could fill in at first base against lefties for Adam Lind. But it's about more just his still-present tools. 2011 is likely his last season, and the Blue Jays should induct the Hall of Fame-hopeful into their Level of Excellence. He's more deserved than most of the players currently on it, despite never winning a World Series or even playing in the post-season for Toronto.

Delgado wouldn't really cost anything to start with either, it's very likely that Minor League contracts will be all he'll be choosing from in the first place. Alex Anthopolous has said that he still has some work to do regarding the Blue Jays bench, a Carlos Delgado signing would be a great place to start.

Toronto Blue Jays: Exploring Moves They Could Make Before Spring Training

The Blue Jays should sign Pods
to platoon with Rajai Davis in centre

As Alex Anthopoulos has stated, the Toronto Blue Jays are pretty much finished with transactions for this offseason - save some bench fodder acquisitions and a few minor league FA signings.


Yet the roster is far from finalized, and I'm not just talking about the stuff that will sorted out in Spring Training. The Blue Jays still need another body that can play multiple infield positions and should look into finding a platoon partner for Rajai Davis, his .666 split against righties in 2010 won't cut it. I believe it has been mentioned before on the site, but signing Scott Podsednik would be a good move. If he gets a legitimate serving of at-bats in 2011, Podsednik could even bring back a supplementary draft pick to be used in the 2012 draft, or Pods could even be traded at the deadline.


But regardless of his off-field options, Scott Podsednik would greatly benefit the Blue Jays in 2011 and wouldn't come at much of a price to begin with. 


As has been speculated to great lengths, the Blue Jays are also in on Eric Chavez and likely have already offered him a minor-league deal. This probably wouldn't get the deal done though, he is probably weighing other minor-league contract offers as well, and therefore as an American, isn't likely to take the Jays offer over identical others. A major-league contract however would probably guarantee Chavez being a Blue Jay in 2011, and I think it's worth it.


Sure, it's been a long time since Chavez has been any good, but if he's finally fully healthy, why not take a flyer on him? Alex Anthopoulos has already stated that 2011 is more or less another rebuilding year, so why not tack on a club-option for 2012 and run a little experiment with Chavez in 2011, giving him 250 at-bats? And if he isn't any good, then release him, it's that simple.


While AA has made a point of assembing one of the best bullpens in the AL this offseason, it's implausible to think that the Jays intend on paying the team's fourth-best bullpen arm $3.5MM in 2011. Yes, I'm talking about Jason Frasor, who reportedly would have had multiple offers earlier in the offseason if it wasn't for his Type A free agent status.


So trade him, seriously. The Blue Jays have a deep enough bullpen without him and isn't going to contend for the closer's job come Spring Training, we've been through that before and it didn't work out. The Chicago Cubs have had interest in the past and are possibly still pursuing Frasor, while Frasor was said to be involved in the Chone Figgins to Oakland three-team trade that is now dead.


To sum up my opinion on which three majors moves the Jays should make before Spring Training, here they are in short: Sign Scott Podsednik to 1-year, $1.8MM deal, sign Eric Chavez to 1-year, $650,000 with 2011 club option of $2.5MM, trade Jason Frasor anywhere for a raw, toolsy prospect or two.

Is Stockpiling Relievers the New Moneyball? Reaction to the Napoli/Francisco Swap

Frank Francisco is headed to Toronto, and I think
this trade benefits both sides

Alex Anthopoulos has made another deal... is anyone surprised? In an aftershock of the Vernon Wells deal, Toronto will now send Mike Napoli to Texas for reliever Frank Francisco.

While I am pleased that this deal took place (for many reasons, as explained later), I caution fans to get too excited over it and not just assume that it is a good trade just because Alex Anthopoulos facilitated it. 

The real truth is, the Rangers probably won the deal overall, but it was beneficial to both clubs. As much as fans wanted to embrace Napoli and believe that he filled a gaping hole, he really didn't, the Blue Jays have enough C/1B/DH players without him.

However, I do think that Anthopoulos will now need to find another 1B/DH player to team up with Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion to fill the positions nightly. Whether that would be a high-profile player like Vladimir Guerrero or mean taking a lottery pick with a Nick Johnson-type player, I'm perfectly open to either possibility.

Meanwhile, Francisco will fill a bullpen that has gotten very good very fast over the past month, despite the Blue Jays not signing any of the top free agent relievers or making any blockbuster trades to acquire a Joakim Soria-type player.

So is stockpiling relievers the new Moneyball? 

We've seen what a tremendous impact having a deep, reliable bullpen had on the 2010 San Diego Padres. With a putrid offense (team wRC+ of 93) and few stars in the rotation (rotation ranked 7th in NL in xFIP), the Padres rode a historically-impressive bullpen (5 relievers with 30+ IP posted ERAs under 2.00) to a 90-win season.

Billy Beane (aka Mr. Moneyball) seemingly took notice of the Padres success and signed Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour (yes, a Type A FA) to big deals. The Athletics already had a deep and effective bullpen, so these moves left a lot of analysts scratching their heads. No Billy Beane is not going crazy, he's just found the latest market inefficiency and has the park (Oakland's park is perhaps the second-best pitching park in MLB, behind SD) to use it to full effectiveness.

Alex Anthopoulos seems to have already caught on, and I believe that he's executed this inefficiency even better than Oakland has. The Blue Jays aren't paying Rauch, Dotel, or Francisco big money on multi-year contracts, and all three of them have the potential to be just as good as Fuentes or Balfour.


After the dust settles from all the huge contracts handed out to 4.0+ WAR players, there are always about five relievers still on the market that can largely bring the goods, yet are available for bargain bin prices. Last year, it was Kevin Gregg, this year, AA has pushed even more chips into the middle on this low-risk strategy.

And once again, AA's favourite theme to succeed shows up: Rauch, Dotel and Francisco are all very likely to be ranked as Type B free agents after the 2011 season, meaning the Blue Jays have a great chance to pick up three supplemental picks purely from relief acquisitions this offseason. The important thing is, Toronto didn't have to give up much to acquire those relievers in the first place.

Bullpens also tend to have a domino effect on the team as a whole, they're worth more than the some of their parts. The Blue Jays young rotation will now breathe more freely during games, knowing that the bullpen has their back if they can't go deep into the contest. 

So sure, Rangers fans may think that their team stole this trade - and they are partly right, but the positive vibes from the swap is likely to be felt by both Texas and Toronto.

A Closer Look at the Risks Involved With a Jose Bautista Extension

Yes, Jose Bautista deserves an extension. Now.

I was originally going to write up an article about what I would like to see AA accomplish over the remainder of the offseason, and that will still come, but after analyzing Jose Bautista's extension or arbitration/2011 FA dilemma, I decided that this is undoubtedly worth its own post.

Alex Anthopolous stated pretty clearly in his latest Fan 590 interview that he'd be perfectly happy to go to arbitration with Jose Bautista. But I believe that extension time is now, and with the newfound cash following the Vernon Wells trade (although I don't think at all that it needs to be spent at once), the opportunity has presented itself for the Blue Jays to follow through on extending the MLB home run leader. 

I propose a 4 year, $45MM contract.

Brady Anderson has easily been the most referenced player in connection with Jose Bautista. Yet Brady wasn't exactly terrible following his 50 homer season, regardless of public opinion and the lack of any eye-popping stats in following seasons. Sure, he never hit for plus-plus power after 1996, but just look at the OPS's of the four seasons after his big year: .862, .776, .881, .796. Not too bad, eh? And certainly worth $10 million in today's crazy baseball economy. 

Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth between 4 and 5 million dollars (we'll use 4.5), and combining Anderson's WAR from the four seasons following 1996 (total of 11.5), he's worth $51.75MM over that four year stretch. Still think giving Jose Bautista a shiny new contract is too risky? Anderson is seen as the sterling example of what terrible thing could happen to Jose Bautista in 2011, a frightening historical precedent that can't be ignored. But clearly, even if Bautista does fall off an Anderson-like cliff after signing my proposed 4/45 deal, it would still be worth it.

On the opposite side of the spectrum of surprising 50 homer hitters is Cecil Fielder, who after toiling away in Toronto, got his chance with Detroit in 1990 to be an everyday hitter, and boy did he claim it, with 51 home runs and a .277/.377/.592 line.

Yes, he's nowhere near the same type of player as Bautista and the miracle season was under very different circumstances, but the main point remains the same: it was surprising, and people wondered if it was all a mirage. It wasn't, and although never again did Fielder OPS .900 in a season or even reach 45 bombs, he did average 33.6 over the next five seasons. These five seasons were worth 14 WAR according to Fangraphs, and therefore a value of $63MM. 

Now, this brings up a new argument: home runs aren't all what they're made out to be, as Anderson almost reaches Fielder's value plateau despite never again hitting 25 and a big shift in the court of public opinion.

But my point still stands: Even in the worst-case scenario that fans are predicting for Bautista in 2011, he's still worth a big contract, as he has a long way to fall. Please, pay Jose Bautista.

Toronto Blue Jays Trade Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera

Vernon Wells - Traded to Anaheim

Wow.


If Alex Anthopolous somehow pulls this trade off without giving Anaheim any cash, today will mark perhaps the best day in Jays history this decade - a truly refreshing deal that will free up tons of cash for Toronto to spend on free agents next winter.


The way AA has architect-ed this current roster is pretty astounding, especially the platoons likely to occur. Napoli will add much-needed left-handed batting and is likely to rotate between catcher, first base, and DH, perhaps receiving as many as 450 at-bats, including always starting against lefties. Rivera has been viewed as more of a pawn in this blockbuster, but he does have some value and, pending a bounceback, has starting upside.


Obviously, freeing up the contract of Vernon Wells is the biggest positive of the entire trade, as he had 4/86. This could open the door for the huge Prince Fielder deal I have been speculating over for a long time.


Sleep well, Jays fans, the positive effects of this deal should be felt for years to come.

BTTN Toronto Blue Jays Top 11-20 Prospects For 2011

Jake Marisnick has just as high an upside
as fellow speedster Anthony Gose

Last week, we at BTTN ranked and analyzed the Blue Jays top prospects, and released our Top 10 (http://bttn.blogspot.com/2011/01/bttn-top-10-jays-prospects-for-2011.html). As promised, here are our rankings of the Toronto Blue Jays Top 11-20 prospects.

11. J.P. Arencibia, C

Many readers have piped in to say that leaving Arencibia off our top ten must have been a mistake, but it wasn’t, I just can’t see him becoming an impact player at the big leagues. He just doesn’t have enough plate discipline and won’t hit for a high enough average to allow his on-base percentage to be adequate. He’ll probably still be good enough to warrant a starting role on some teams, but with Toronto’s multitude of high-upside catcher prospects, don’t expect him to be on the team in 2014.

12. Jake Marisnick, CF

Marisnick was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, and 2010 was met with mixed results. After tearing up rookie ball (.373 OBP, .459 SLG, 14/1 SB/CS), he was promoted to Lansing where he dropped to a .298 OBP and .339 SLG. But, his walk rate remained solid (7.1%) and his defense remained excellent.

Marisnick is still only 19, so expect him to start the year in Lansing and perhaps earn a call-up to Dunedin if he plays well.

13. Chad Jenkins, SP

It’s hard to get too excited about Toronto’s 2009 first-round draft pick, Chad Jenkins. In his first pro season, split between Lansing and Dunedin, he only managed to strike out 6.7 per 9 IP, although his walk totals were low as well (2.0 BB/9). Jenkins was drafted with the assumption that he’d ascend through the minors quickly, yet he’s 23 and still hasn’t had a sniff of AA.

He’s probably not going to see the majors until 2012, if he ever does.

14. Adonis Cardona, SP

Overshadowed by the monstrous contract the Blue Jays gave to fellow international free agent Adeiny Hechavarria, Cardona was given $2.8 million in July. Most refer to him as the best pitcher to come out of Venezuela this year, and I’ve surely gotten excited over him. Cardona, only 17, apparently touches 94 with his fastball and has tons of room to add velocity as he ages.

15. Eric Thames, OF

Some call Thames a fringy prospect because he’s already 24 and likely isn’t going to get much better. While I must in part agree, it’s hard to look past the fact that he OPS’d .896 in AA with 27 home runs in only 496 at-bats, while showing solid plate discipline (8.73 BB%). He’ll never be a 4 WAR player, but I see no reason that he can’t be a positive player in the big leagues.

The minor league equivalency calculator shows that if Thames would have spent 2010 in the majors, he would have batted .242/.307/.413. Now, that’s not very good especially considering the position (corner OF) he plays, but with a bit of improvement, Thames could be a solid fourth outfielder good enough to warrant 300 at-bats.

16. Henderson Alvarez, SP

Any way you slice it, Henderson Alvarez had a disappointing 2010. Spending the whole year in Dunedin as a 20-year old, Alvarez could only manage 6.2 SO/9 while seeing his walk, hit, and home run totals rise sharply.

The Blue Jays plans for him in 2011 has yet to be announced, but don’t be surprised if he spends all of 2011 and 2012 in New Hampshire with an ETA of 2013.

17. Moises Sierra, OF

Sierra’s value and prospect status took a big hit in 2010 as he spent most of the season nursing multiple injuries and was only able to play in 20 games – and none above high-A Dunedin. Thus, Sierra couldn’t improve on his breakout 2009, in which he hit .292/.360/.399 split between Dunedin and eight games in New Hampshire.

He’s 22, so 2011 is now-or-never time for Moises. Hopefully he can, after starting in Dunedin, get a call-up to New Hampshire in May and hit the cover off the ball there. Speed and on-base skills are his strength, so his ultimate upside is to be the Blue Jays everyday right-fielder and two-hole hitter. If he realizes his full potential, expect Sierra to earn a September call-up in 2012 and start the 2013 season with the big-league club.

18. David Cooper, 1B

Cooper is the Blue Jays No. 1 draft pick from 2008, yet he hasn’t played quite like it and is a longshot from realizing his original potential. His overall numbers from 2010 in New Hampshire aren’t bad (.257/.327/.442 in 498 at-bats) and sure, he could still be a nice bench piece in the future or even scratch out a Lyle Overbay-like career. But the huge upside isn’t there anymore and in the AL East it’s necessary to have a .900+ OPS guy at first base to be a contender.

19. Dickie Thon, SS

Dickie Thon was the team’s 5th round draft pick in 2010 and was given a $1.5 million signing bonus, proof that Rogers is willing to go over-slot to acquire top talent in the draft. Thon is the son of the former all-star shortstop of the same name. He has good tools but it very raw and could be as many as 5 or 6 years away from the majors. He’s a solid defender with good speed (25 SB?), has potential for a .300+ average, but needs to work on his pitch recognition.

20. Marcus Knecht, OF

Marcus Knecht was Toronto’s third-round draft pick in the 2010 draft and is… Canadian! Knecht grew up in the GTA, and played well in Auburn after signing. His best tool is power, and could potentially be a .280 hitter in the majors. Knecht has above-average speed and seems to be a good kid – attitude won’t be a problem, something that gets overlooked often. ETA: 2013.

Manny Ramirez: Why Not?

Shortly after the Toronto Blue Jays hired new manager John Farrell, Manny Ramirez was quoted as saying that he would love to come play for Toronto, both because of Farrell and the love he has always had for the city. During weekend in November and December, Manny was even spotted reguarly, frequenting downtown. But that was months ago, you already know this.

Today, Manny still hasn't been signed by any team and Alex Anthopolous (not to mention the rest of the Blue Jays front office as well) hasn't even acknowledged that they intend to sign another 1B/DH player this offseason let alone proclaim that they Blue Jays have particular interest in Manny Ramirez.

It's hard to imagine that the Jays are content with allowing Edwin Encarnacion to play a full season of 600 at-bats, alternating between first and DH with Adam Lind. Statistics heavily favour the thought process of platooning EE and Lind at first, as Encarnacion obliterates left-handing pitching (past three years: .888 OPS) while Adam Lind had probably the worst lefty split in the history of the game in 2010 (a horrid .341 OPS). The plan the past couple years was to keep Lind in against left-handed pitchers, allow him to become more comfortable against them.

And while he was solid against lefties in his breakout 2009 campaign(.779 OPS), his 2010 split strongly suggests that it's time to cut the cord. A platoon with Encarnacion is by far the best option when keeping the betterment of the team at mind.

So, with Encarnacion and Lind occupied, Toronto really needs to go find another bat, and I believe that Manny Ramirez is the solution for multiple reasons, not just including on-field performance. His mere presence on the field would attract a multitude of fans to the ballpark, it's hard to dispute that Manny is a fan favourite, and I think the clubhouse-cancer speculation is a bit overplayed. The man just wants to play baseball and his obsession with the game can endanger alienation among teammates, but that doesn't mean he's a negative influence.

Plus, much to the disagreement of some casual fans, Manny can still produce. Sure, he might not ever hit 30 home runs in a season again or even hit for a .300 average in 2011, but he can sure work a walk and remains to at least have plus power. Many point to his 'terrible' time with the White Sox as a sure sight of bad things to come, but it's important to note that Manny still managed to put up a .420 OBP in those 24 games.

It's easy to assume that Ramirez will get on-base at more than a .400 clip in 2011, and that kind of production is always welcome on any baseball team, regardless of other statistics.

Props to Sports Illustrated for the photo.